So, there's this big shot, Boss Yevgeny Prigozhin from Wagner Group. Word on the street is, he took an unplanned skydive from a jet in Russia. Now, for the position of head honcho of these freelance warriors, guess Putin needs a new nametag.
Prigozhin's on a list of folks who went down with a jet in Russia – a 10-person belly flop.
The plot thickens: Mr. Boss of Wagner Group was in a bit of a tiff with the Moscow bigwigs after causing a ruckus last June. His "unexpected departure" must've put a spring in their step.
The New Boss in Town
Putin had a new boss picked out for Wagner Group, way back in June – right after Prigozhin caused a kerfuffle.
Five days after Wagner Group's failed fiasco in late June, Putin sat down with Prigozhin and some top Wagner cronies, as per Russia's Kommersant newspaper.
Gossips say Putin had a thing for Andrei Troshev to be the go-to guy for these mercenaries, considering he was also high up in the Wagner ranks.
Meet Andrei Troshev
Andrei Nikolaevich Troshev, born April 5, 1962, rocks the white hair, earning him the nickname "Silver Fox" – fancy, huh?
This ex-Colonel started up Wagner Group, and he's got the military cred – fought in the Soviet-Afghan War, Round Two of the Chechen Clash, and had a Russian military cameo in Syria's civil donnybrook.
Buzz says Troshev's tight with Wagner VIPs, including Dmitry Utkin – the brain behind this freelancer gang, a former military intel guy, and the big cheese Aleksandr Sergeevich Kuznetsov.
Troshev's the 61-year-old who's Britain's financial target, making him Wagner's CEO loud and proud. Oh, and he's got two Red Stars from his Afghan tour.
He even scored Russia's highest bling – the Hero of Russia medal in 2016 – for leading the charge against ISIS in Syria's Palmyra.
But hold your horses, Troshev's still just the maybe-guy. What's next for Wagner, now that Prigozhin's off the gameboard? That's still hazy, say Russian sleuths.
And word on the street is, without Prigozhin, Wagner's mojo's dwindlin'. Seems folks are tilting back toward Putin.
Sources say, even with all the names tossed in the hat for Prigozhin's throne, who's got the chops to rock it – that's the million-dollar question.
Deadly Dive of Wagner's Top Dog Prigozhin: Jet's Rap Sheet Clean
This jet model, Embraer, taking its nosedive in Russia with Prigozhin aboard, has had just one blip in its 20 years of flying.
And no, it's not about a mechanical boo-boo. Russia's big shots say Prigozhin was a fancy passenger in that private jet nosedive on Wednesday night (August 23, 2023), turning it into a flying scrap heap.
Russian newsroom TASS said it was an Embraer Brasil jet.
Embraer's hinting they know about the crash involving their Legacy 600 jet. But they're like, "Sorry, no updates here, haven't been in touch since 2019."
"Embraer's following the international sanctions game with Russia," says the jet maker.
Sanctions mean the Western jet folks can't help out with parts or servicing for planes in Russia.
The online flight tracker Flightradar24 says Embraer Legacy 600 (with the tag RA-02795) took a vanishing act at 18:11 local time (1511 GMT).
There's this video – not 100% verified – making rounds on social media, showing a private jet-like thing plummeting from the skies.
Starting in 2002, Legacy 600 played in the aviation arena, says International Aviation HQ, making around 300 units till they hit stop in 2020.
One crash in the books for Legacy 600, according to International Aviation HQ, back in 2006 when it bumped into a Gol Boeing 737-800 mid-air. That was during a jaunt from Embraer's Brazilian factory to the US.
Despite some scuffs, the Embraer pilot safely landed the plane. No casualties. The Boeing, though, went down in flames, 154 folks bought the farm.
Brazil's Air Force, two years down the line, gave the stink eye to two US pilots, air traffic control, and radio confusion for that aerial mess.
At the time, the pilots' attorney pointed at air traffic control and Brazil's sky-guide snags for the crash.
4 Futures for Wagner – Fresh Face or Putin's Puppet?
Unlike Putin's wallflowers, Prigozhin was a chatterbox.
Months before his rebel yell, he was tearing into Russia's big shots.
Then, a bunch of Wagner's top guns hotfooted it to a quickie camp in Belarus's woods post-revolt.
Some hung around Suwalki Gap by Poland-Lithuania border, the no-man's land between Belarus and Russia's Baltic hidey-hole, Kaliningrad.
No surprise that Prigozhin's exit was written in the stars after his coup play. CIA honcho William Burns predicted Putin's revenge vacation.
"It's a complicated dance we're seeing," Burns said at the Aspen Security Forum in July. "And Putin's leading the revenge tango."
Though the dirty deets about Prigozhin's plane plunge are foggy, it's clear that Wagner, his brainchild, has gone to pieces.
Now, here are 4 futures for Wagner, the freelancing tribe.
Wagner's New Gig
"Picture this: Putin goes all Godfather-like, icy revenge and all," says Russian opposition activist Sergey Bizyukin.
"Prigozhin gets evicted. Two months fly by, they reshuffle the assets, give a twist to all the connections, swap out anything that needs replacing. And bam, out go Prigozhin and his top dogs," adds Sergey Bizyukin, chatting to Al Jazeera.
"Who knows if [Prigozhin] will make it in Belarus, but that's his one shot at survival," says Bizyukin.
2. Battle On in Ukraine and Africa
Wagner's got the rep for a reason – they're effective. So, they might stick around, kicking up dirt in Ukraine and elsewhere. Even if they're not just "dry but also diced," military analyst David Gendelman thinks.
Turns out the plane crash wiped Wagner's top brass off the map.
Valery Chkalov, Prigozhin's right-hand man for Wagner's Ukraine, Syria, and Africa gigs, bit the dust. Along with key players Yevgeny Makaryan and Sergey Propustin.
Yet Kremlin won't scrap the resources – those combat-tested warplanes and smoothly-operating Africa ops are a tad too precious. Gendelman's got the scoop.
3. Wagner's Putin's Puppet
"Chances are they'll keep on trucking, under a fresh face linked to Russian command. And that control shift? Likely part of the head-chopping preparation," spills the beans to Al Jazeera.
But their Africa groove might be fading – China's rising, and other BRICS stars are shining bright.
"Russia's grasp on Africa's loosening, no matter who's the Wagner wizard," says Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch, talking to Al Jazeera.
4. Wagner's Worn Out Sans Prigozhin
Gossip has it Wagner's exiled fighters in Belarus are taking off. Some grumble about peanuts for pay, others are booking it to West Africa. Their troop strength, once over 5,000, now shrinks to about a quarter.
Back in Russia, Wagner's been twiddling their thumbs for two months, like Prigozhin's waiting for his cue from Putin.
And with Wagner's Ukrainian exit, after they played bait with their warplanes in Bakhmut, the big question is whether their next act can roll out on African soil.
Even with names in the hat for Prigozhin's throne, it's a toss-up if any can replace him.
Wagner's Africa empire, a mix of misinformation, shady commerce, and freelance fighters, thrived on Prigozhin's immoral ties, built over the years. Rumor has it Wagner's even made appearances in Mali, cozying up to military juntas. That pushed France to call it quits on a decade-long Mali mission.
But without Prigozhin, is Wagner still Wagner? According to Sean Bell, ex-air marshal turned military analyst, talking to Sky News in June after Moscow's Wagner uprising, Wagner's toast.
"Wagner is Prigozhin. Without him, it's tough to see how they'll pull through. It's the end of the Wagner we know," Bell spills.
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