Despite skyrocketing inflation and a reassuring macroeconomic situation, gold is not absorbed in its role as a safe haven and in 2022 it was almost always decorrelated with the precious metal.
Gold and Bitcoin correlation
Throughout the year, the correlation between Gold and Bitcoin has fluctuated between 0.2 negative and 0.2 positive, despite everything, as the US dollar continues to grow in value, the correlation between the two assets has changed and today reaches the highest level for a year now.
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As for the interest on the most capitalized digital currency expressed in native units (excluding the effects on prices), despite being always sensitive to strong volatility, it increased by 6% in September and by over 26% in the third quarter of this year. to around 380,000 BTC.
We are now deep in a bear market in cryptocurrencies and trading volumes are proving it.
Satoshi's digital currency has declined in double digits this year, dragged down by the tightening of global monetary policy.
As is known, to protect one's capital it is certainly essential to place part of the portfolio in one or more safe-haven assets and both the precious metal and BTC seem to want to take back the scepter.
This is more important if, like this year, inflation is skyrocketing and the countermeasures adopted by central banks still do not provide a solution.
The situation does not seem to have returned to "normality", all the more so with the macro situation we are experiencing and which seems far from improving despite a wave of positivity coming from the GDP side.
As for gold, the price per ounce has fallen to a six-week low, breaking the support of $ 1,700 and palladium is losing ground as it changes hands with a 4.18% lower.
After benefiting heavily from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the first quarter of the year, gold lost all of its gains and is currently down 10% year to date.
This year in both the United States and the European Union, inflation has exceeded 9% and this has turned into the most unexpected decline in metals ever for analysts who placed their faith in it.
An ounce of gold against the US dollar had reached $ 2,070 an ounce on March 8, 2022 while silver had reached its high of the year at $ 26.46 an ounce, however silver lost little. more than 20% of its value from the beginning of the year to today and only today it has recovered the level of 20 dollars an ounce.
The BCA calms inflation with interest rates
The American Central Bank, which sees the fight against inflation as a main battle to bring it back to a milder 2%, has strengthened the dollar following systematic bullish interventions on interest rates.
"A more aggressive Fed, which implies higher real interest rates and a stronger US dollar, both indicate falling gold prices."
This is the opinion of Przemyslaw Radomski, CEO of the investment consultancy Sunshine Profits.
David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures said
“There is continued pressure on gold from Powell's comments which have raised [the] expectation of a more aggressive Fed. Gold being a non-interest bearing asset will have more competition "
As for the world of traditional currencies, since the beginning of last month, great volatility has given rise to large price differences with BTC.
It is evident that the trading price of BTC, taken on the first of the month as a reference point with respect to various fiat currencies, is around 10%.
BTC-GBP is trading around 5% and above BTC-USD since September 1st.
The British and European markets are generally much less liquid than the US dollar-denominated crypto markets and present more opportunities for professional traders.
Over the past two weeks, the crypto market has remained fairly steady while the equity markets continue their losses in any latitude and longitude.
Germany experienced double-digit inflation for the first time since World War II and the Bank of England temporarily began buying UK long-term bonds to heal market volatility.
Eurozone inflation hit 10% yoy, assuming an ECB rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting albeit in light of recent UN complaints against the Federal Reserve and Central Bank European Union of Brussels.
The US dollar (DXY) continues to be driven by real yield spreads and its role as a safe haven while waiting to be in the company of gold and BTC makes it the only asset to record positive returns in both the second and third quarters.
Year on year, all stock exchanges lose significant capital compared to 2021 and this trend is progressively decorrelating from the behavior of Btc and the rest of the altcoins, at least this is the trend of recent weeks.
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